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by Kate Ledford

September 2025 Economic Recap: Growth Amid Rising Risks

Monday, September 29, 2025

The third quarter of 2025 presented a mix of resilience and uncertainty for the U.S. economy. While headline growth surprised on the upside, underlying structural risks, including inflationary pressures, policy uncertainty, and global tensions, shaped a cautious outlook for the months ahead.

U.S. Economy: Growth with Rising Risks

The United States economy in the third quarter of 2025 showed a complex performance, marked by surprisingly resilient headline growth alongside rising structural risks. Forecasters generally revised their real GDP growth estimates for Q3 upward during the quarter, with some models projecting an annualized growth rate of 3.8%. The acceleration from a sluggish first half of the year was largely driven by robust consumer spending. However, many economists viewed this momentum as potentially unsustainable, offset by the mounting impact of higher tariffs and elevated policy uncertainty, which are expected to weigh on both business investment and household consumption in the final quarter of the year.

Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Pressures

Monetary policy remained a central focus, with the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September as part of a risk-management strategy to support employment. This easing came despite consumer price inflation staying stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, with some projections anticipating further increases as new tariffs fully filter through the economy. The labor market, while still relatively stable with low unemployment, showed signs of cooling, including a recent uptick in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in monthly job creation. This mix of weaker labor market momentum and persistent inflationary pressure created a challenging and uncertain environment for the Fed, with the long-term outlook hinging on how quickly tariff-driven costs pass through to consumers and whether corporate confidence can withstand ongoing policy ambiguity.

Global Tensions and Energy Markets

Geopolitical tensions persisted with the continuing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas. In Ukraine, the war has entered its fourth year, with Russia making slow territorial gains. The Israel-Hamas conflict continues with devastating consequences amid a worsening humanitarian crisis and famine in Gaza. Oil prices stand at $66 per barrel.

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