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by Dr Thomas J Healy, CMB
Prepay Analysis: October 2024
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Speeds seem to be on a slow, but erratic, upward projectory. The average coupon of all loans outstanding in this database ($5.6T) is 3.98% and 89% of all mortgages have coupons under 6.00%. However, two dynamics are beginning to appear.
- We are still seeing some borrowers tiring of blindly hanging on to their low-rate mortgages and succumbing to demographic pressures (desire for a new home, job transfers, etc.( to refi.
- Coupons > 6.00% now comprise over 12% of the total population outstanding. These loans appear very vulnerable to refinancing.
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