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by Dr Thomas J Healy, CMB

10-Q MSR Values

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

10Q MSR values seem to have levelled off.  They hit their nadir in June of 2020 shortly after 30 year fixed rate mortgages hit their low of 2.65%. Since then, they have essentially doubled from 72 to 146 basis points.

As is evident, however, prices have now levelled off.  The average coupon for all loans outstanding at this point in time is 3.93%.  While there is little risk of a refi boom, the probability of speeds getting even slower is also remote.  The only room for any improvement in pricing would come from a drop in yield requirements.  Such an occurrence would probably go hand-in-hand with a small increase in projected speeds.  Accordingly, current prices are at their peak.

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