by Dr Thomas J Healy, CMB

December 2022 Prepay Speeds

Saturday, December 31, 2022

The downward trajectory of speeds continued, albeit at a slower pace.  The governments are finally below 10% CPR, while the conventionals and LLBs are now in the 3's.  Conventionals are now at their "demographic" level (i.e. deaths, marriages, transfers, etc).  Mortgage rates dropped between October and December after many months of continual increases.  Accordingly, it is possible that we will see a bump up in speeds next month.  In addition, the inverted yield curve implies falling forward rates, again arguing for possibly higher future speeds.

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