by Dr Thomas J Healy, CMB

May 2022 Prepay Speeds

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

The downward trajectory of speeds continues.  The governments are finally under 20% CPR, while the conventionals are now at 8.5%.  Large Loan Balance loans (LLBs) increased a bit due to an increase in speeds on LLB ARMs.  It appears that borrowers are bolting to fixed rate loans.  Conventionals and Jumbos are now starting to approach their "demographic" level (i.e. deaths, marriages, transfers, etc).  Mortgage rates continue their inexorable rise and are now exceeding 5.5%.  While nowhere near the Jimmy Carter rate levels (yet), rates are up 250 bp from their year ago low.

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